Josh's Blog

## Month: April 2021

Back in 2016 I was at the tail end of obtaining a post-baccalaureate certification in accounting. In one of my classes, my instructor taught us about the pareto 80/20 rule (along with Benford’s analysis) as a useful means to chart outcomes.

The 80/20 rule goes something like this; for most measurable outcomes, (be it retail sales, wealth distribution, song hits in an album, world religions, spices in a dish you love, etc.) you will find that about 80 percent of a result is driven by about 20 percent of the causes.

So back to retail sales, if you look at your quarterly sales figures you will likely find that about 80 percent of your sales can be traced back to only 20 percent of your products. So, if you find out what those 20 percent of stock are, you will learn most certainly what to keep on your shelves, and can also consider what to do with the other 80 percent. be it replacing, discounting, or whatever.

It is a fascinating phenomenon with much more depth behind it than my little example. You can find out more about it here, https://betterexplained.com/articles/understanding-the-pareto-principle-the-8020-rule/.

So back in February of 2016, my new band Copper Root had played a few shows and decided to launch a YouTube and Facebook page to feature footage, music samples, and news, and other what-have-ya’s. Almost immediately we began accumulating several ‘likes’ from an invisible fanbase. This excited some of the other members of the band, but having learned the good ol 80/20 rule, I put a little damper the those fires to bring us a little bit closer to what was really going on.

The ‘how good is my band really doing’ approximation test:
Subtract EVERYTHING but the number of “likes”
Example: 1000 views and 50 likes
1000-950 = 50
(it takes 1 second and one brain cell to hit a like button. If they aint hittin the “like” button… your video/music is probably just in the way of something they are actually wanting to see/hear)
Next, if you can, count up all of the “likes” that are friends & family of all the members of the band.
Subtract those too. (graciously of course, friends and family are what make the world go round, but we are seeking the number of impartial that don’t always have your back)
Example:
Likes = 50 – 38 friends & family
= 12 impartial fans
You now have an idea as to your unbiased fan base.
Take that number and divide it by the total number of views.
You now have a fan per # of views ratio.
Example: 12/1000 = .012 impartial
For every 1000 views on fb and YT, ~1 percent constitutes an actual fan engagement.
*Note: if your friends and family really like your videos, and play them a lot…the ratio is even lower.
Test this result with the number of new faces at a local venue where only your band is performing. (playing at restaurants don’t count, the audience is already there to eat)
Subtract 80 percent of that number for casual walk ins. If there is a loud cheer at the end, and people are throwing clothing for in-betweens at you …….add back 15 to 20 percent. And tell them to check you out on fb and YT. But DO NOT ask them to like you page. (See if they do it of their own accord)

I had to take a minute this morning to reflect on the fact that I got lost in an English forest yesterday. It wasn’t for long, but still, for about fifteen or twenty minutes I was definitively without direction.